Date: 19/05/2018

At the root of the collapse of the Virgin Trains East Coast franchise, confirmed this week, was the expectation that rail passenger numbers could go only one way: up. Two decades of consistent growth had fostered the assumption that demand would keep rising, the only question being how high. That assumption has been proved wrong. Instead, demand has dropped not only on mainline inter-city routes but on commuter rail franchises and Londons tube network, where annual numbers are down 1.5%. Bus journey numbers are also down, dipping under 5bn in 2017 for the first time in a decade. Even on Londons comparatively cheap and regulated network they declined by 0.7%.

External links

The bad bet at the heart of the East Coast rail franchise implosion

Guardian

Virgin Trains bosses did not conceive that passenger numbers could fall after two decades of consistent growth

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